The race for the Kasarani parliamentary seat is already beginning to take shape, and early survey findings show that voters are distributing their support across different candidates rather than rallying behind a single dominant figure.
The latest digital opinion poll by Mwelekeo Insights paints a picture of a constituency where competition remains wide open, with several candidates enjoying significant levels of support as political activity gradually intensifies ahead of the 2027 General Election.
Kanyari Holds Early Lead
According to the survey, independent candidate Victor Kanyari currently holds the leading position with 31.8 percent support.
His performance is notable because he is not running under any major political party. Securing slightly more than three out of every ten supporters in a crowded field places him at the front of the race and suggests that a significant section of Kasarani voters is willing to back a candidate outside the traditional party structures.
While he leads the field, his percentage also shows that there is still substantial room for movement as the campaign period approaches.
Mercy Gakuya Remains Within Reach
Mercy Gakuya of the Democratic Change Party follows closely with 27.6 percent support. The gap between her and the frontrunner is relatively small, making her one of the strongest contenders in the contest.
Her level of support indicates that she has already built a strong political base within the constituency.
With only a few percentage points separating the top two candidates, the race remains highly competitive and could shift depending on future political developments and campaign strategies.
UDA Support Split Between Candidates
In third place is Ronald Karauri of UDA, who has attracted 21.3 percent support. His position keeps him firmly within striking distance of the leading candidates.
Although he trails the top two, his support level demonstrates that he remains a serious contender in the race. The survey also shows another UDA candidate, Victor Sankara, receiving 8.7 percent support.
When viewed together, the two UDA candidates account for a combined 30 percent of voter preference, nearly matching the leading candidate’s share.
This suggests that the UDA brand still enjoys considerable influence in Kasarani despite support being divided among multiple aspirants.
Other Candidates and Voter Certainty
Further down the list, Boniface Nyamu of DCP records 6.2 percent support while David Asunda stands at 4.3 percent.
Although these percentages are lower than those of the leading contenders, they could still play an important role in shaping the final outcome, especially if alliances, endorsements, or shifts in voter sentiment emerge closer to the election period.
One of the most striking findings from the survey is the extremely low percentage of undecided voters, which stands at just 0.1 percent.
This suggests that most respondents already have a preferred candidate in mind.
Such a small undecided segment indicates that many residents are actively following local political developments and have already begun forming opinions about who they would like to represent them in Parliament.
Race Remains Open
The picture emerging from the survey is that Kasarani remains a highly competitive constituency with no candidate commanding an outright majority. The leading candidate’s 31.8 percent support provides an advantage but not a decisive one.
The percentages show a contest that is still fluid, with several candidates capable of gaining ground if they successfully expand their appeal to different voter groups.
The fact that the top three candidates collectively account for more than 80 percent of the support demonstrates how concentrated the race has become among a few major contenders.
Mwelekeo Insights Continues Tracking Voter Trends
The survey was conducted by Mwelekeo Insights, a research organization that tracks political and social trends across Kenya.
The firm has previously carried out surveys on major political contests. The firm’s polls continue to attract attention because they provide an early view of voter sentiment and help observers understand how political dynamics are evolving before election campaigns enter their most active phase.
