Afresh digital survey conducted by Mwelekeo Insights, a firm specializing in public opinion polling, provides an early glimpse into voter sentiment. The poll reveals a strong desire for change, with two newcomers significantly outpacing the sitting Member of Parliament.
The Final Rankings: A Two-Horse Race
The survey results show a very tight contest between the top two candidates, with the incumbent trailing far behind.
The final rankings are as follows:
1. Geoffrey Wauna “Pedeshe” – 42.6%
2. Faith Norah Lukosi – 42%
3. George Aladwa (Current MP) – 9.1%
4. Irungu Nyakera – 4.5%
5. Reuben Ndolo – 0.9%
6. Mark Ndung’u – 0.5%
7. Anthony Waithaka – 0.3%
8. Benson Mutura – 0.1%
The data shows that Geoffrey Wauna and Faith Norah Lukosi are in a statistical dead heat, separated by a razor-thin margin of 0.6 percentage points.
Together, they command over 84% of the votes in this survey.
This suggests Makadara residents are very open to new leadership.
A Significant Setback for the Incumbent
The poll presents a major challenge for the sitting MP, George Aladwa. With only 9.1%, he finds himself in a distant third place.
This is a significant drop in support, especially when compared to an earlier poll by Mizani Africa, which had shown Aladwa with 49.9% of the vote in October 2025.
This stark difference between the two polls highlights how fluid voter sentiment can be. However, the Mwelekeo Insights survey was conducted more recently, and its results suggest that many constituents are looking for a change in representation.
High Voter Engagement in the Poll
The survey was not just about the candidates; it also showed a high level of participation from the people of Makadara.
This resulted in a 100% turnout for the survey, indicating a strong interest among residents in the future leadership of their constituency.
Mwelekeo Insights
Mwelekeo Insights is a Kenyan research firm that gathers and analyzes public opinion on important national issues.
They focus on areas like politics, governance, the economy, and social matters. Their goal is to provide accurate, data-driven insights that reflect the views of the people.
They have conducted research on a wide range of topics, from the public’s view of government appointees to generational attitudes on social issues like marriage and the June 2024 protests.
The firm is known for its commitment to scientific and transparent research methods, ensuring their findings are reliable and unbiased. They aim to give a voice to all Kenyans, using modern tools and traditional methods to capture diverse perspectives from across the country.
By making their findings public, Mwelekeo Insights helps citizens, decision-makers, and businesses understand public sentiment and make informed decisions.
They are dedicated to turning raw data into actionable insights that can shape policies and influence national conversations.
