According to political commentators, President William Ruto’s relationship with opposition leader Raila Odinga may grow or deteriorate depending on the outcome of the former prime minister’s quest for the African Union Commission (AUC) chairperson.
They point out that Raila, who has lost five presidential elections, is now trying his luck in African politics, vying for the AUC chair.
However, he is opposed by Djibouti’s Foreign Minister Mahamoud Ali Youssouf, who is also supported by other Kenyans who are dissatisfied with Raila’s cooperation with the government.
Analysts warn that the contest is extremely competitive, with both contenders set to step up their campaigns.
The outcome could have either a beneficial or bad impact on President Ruto’s re-election bid in 2027.
Analysts believe that if Raila is not elected chairman of the AUC, the Kenya Kwanza administration may suffer as a result.
They say: Raila’s political ambitions are certainly still alive, as indicated by his determination to keep control of ODM.
Instead of handing up ODM to a younger leader for reconstruction, he has appointed Kisumu Governor Professor Anyang’ Nyong’o, a seasoned politician with no obvious future political ambitions, to hold it in trust.
It is clear that if Raila, 79, does not get the AUC position, he would return to Kenya with new demands to either back the administration or set the basis for a possible presidential bid in 2027.
Raila is currently a vital pillar in President Ruto’s administration, having helped quell the Gen Z rallies a few months ago, and his MPs assisted to Gachagua’s departure.
They highlight that if Raila fails to acquire the AUC chair, he may seek a formal cooperation arrangement with the government, thus increasing his influence within the existing administration.
Alternatively, he might impose tough conditions on endorsing President Ruto’s re-election attempt in 2027, given the President’s shift in focus following Mount Kenya’s withdrawal.
