Mombasa Governor Abdulswamad Nassir has opened an early lead in the race for the county’s top seat ahead of the 2027 General Election, according to a new digital opinion poll by Mwelekeo Insights.
Nassir recorded 39.9 per cent support in the survey, putting him ahead of businessman and politician Ali Menza Mbogo, who received 33.3 per cent.
The figures show a 6.6 percentage-point difference between the two leading contenders, pointing to a race that could become competitive as the election approaches.
Wiper politician Mohamed Ali, popularly known as Jicho Pevu, came third with 19.3 per cent support.
Nassir holds early advantage
Nassir’s 39.9 per cent places him in a strong position at this early stage of the contest.
The governor is seeking to retain the seat he won in the 2022 General Election after successfully succeeding former governor Hassan Joho, who had served the maximum two terms.
His closest challenger, Mbogo, recorded 33.3 per cent, putting him within six percentage points of the sitting governor.
Mbogo is associated with the Linda Mwananchi movement and has increasingly featured in discussions around the county’s political future.
The relatively small gap between Nassir and Mbogo could make the gubernatorial contest one to watch as political parties and aspirants begin preparing for the next election.
Mohamed Ali remained a significant figure in the survey, securing 19.3 per cent.
The former journalist has built a political profile in Mombasa and contested for the governor’s seat in the past. His position in the latest poll shows that he remains part of the leading group of contenders.
Other candidates received smaller shares of support. Suleiman Shahbal of the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) recorded 3.7 per cent, while Hassan Omar of the United Democratic Alliance (UDA) received 3.3 per cent.
Mwelekeo Insights poll
The findings were released by Mwelekeo Insights, a research firm that focuses on measuring public opinion on political, governance, economic, social and business matters.
The firm says it uses research methods and technology to collect and analyse public sentiment through opinion polls. Its latest digital survey offers an early picture of how some voters are currently viewing the Mombasa gubernatorial race.
However, the figures should be viewed within the context of an election that is still some time away.
Political positions can change significantly before voting day, especially when parties settle on candidates, alliances are formed and campaigns become more active.
The Mombasa race is therefore likely to attract greater attention in the coming months as potential candidates continue to position themselves and political parties assess their options.
The poll also shows that the contest could be largely centred around the three leading candidates, Nassir, Mbogo and Mohamed Ali.
Together, they account for more than 90 per cent of the support recorded in the digital survey.
For Nassir, maintaining the lead will depend on how he navigates the remaining period of his first term and his efforts to secure support for another five-year mandate.
For his challengers, the figures provide an indication that the race remains open enough for them to mount a serious challenge.
With the 2027 General Election still ahead, the Mombasa gubernatorial contest is expected to evolve as campaigns take shape, alliances shift and voters make clearer decisions about who they want to lead the county.
