If history truly repeats itself then Kenya should prepare for a lukewarm, moderate, clueless and non threatening character to be the next President of Kenya. Visit history and tell me more on the personal traits of Jomo Kenyatta, Daniel Toroitich Arap Moi, Mwai Kibaki and Uhuru Kenyatta before they were elected Presidents. Not a single one of them was combative. They all appeared clueless and non threatening till they took power.
Same words were confirmed last week by Nakuru Governor Lee Kinyanjui at a private meeting attended by President Kenyatta, selected elders and few stakeholders from Mt Kenya and Rift Valley region held in Gicheha Farm, Nakuru. He was quoted saying,
“The leadership sword is very sharp and needs to be blunted a bit before we can hand it over to another person whose behaviour on assuming the mantle of power can’t be predicted,”
In short no strong combative character makes it to presidency. That explains why the deep state were comfortable with Mwai Kibaki in 2002, Kalonzo Musyoka in 2007 before things went south forcing them to back Mwai Kibaki again. Same to 2013 and 2017.
Those who fit in this category in Kenya today is a 75 year old Raila Odinga, Musalia Mudavadi, Kalonzo Musyoka and Gideon Moi. Deputy President William Ruto on the other hand is as combative as Raila Odinga in his hay days.
With the recent events including reshuffling done last week, it’s not rocket science that the ICC duo still have a thing uniting them. It’s crystal clear that William Ruto will not be President, at least not in 2022.
Many businesses of the deputy President William Ruto have been affected including the imported milk from Uganda which is believed to be coming from outside EAC. No wonder the president hit it with a 16% VAT tax. Have you heard about the 17 billion nabbed by detectives Barclays bank in town? How about those ones nabbed somewhere around Juja?
Among the four mentioned earlier only Raila Odinga and Musalia Mudavadi seem to know what they’re doing. At least in the recent past we could see Musalia Mudavadi reacting to some directives by the national government. Little can be said about Senator Gideon Moi and former Vice President Kalonzo Musyoka.
Ready to relinquish power
President Kenyatta confirmed at a private meeting that he is ready to go home. “Who said there will be no smooth handover of power? We cannot do things like fools,” the President was quoted saying in the private meeting held in Nakuru.
It’s not forgotten that President Kenyatta had once said that his choice for 2022 will surprise many. So who is the state grooming to take over from President Uhuru Kenyatta?
It was not by coincidence that President Kenyatta and Musalia Mudavadi found themselves in Garissa when the former unveiled the 50MW solar power plant. It appeared like the head of state was showing him which projects to be keen on when he takes over.
Musalia Mudavadi has been a system person since he was a 28 year old back in 1989 when he took over from his late dad as MP and was immediately appointed by his uncle, former President Daniel Toroitich Arap Moi, as the cabinet minister for finance.
Before the 2002 general election, Musalia Mudavadi served as deputy President for slightly 90 days even though it came after the parliament had been dissolved.
Between 2002 and 2007 he served as minister before taking over the deputy premiership in the coalition government of 2008. President Uhuru Kenyatta was almost fronting him for Presidency in 2013 before things changed.
In December 5, 2019 The Star newspaper published an opinion of lawyer Danstan Omari which had far-reaching impact on the person of Musalia Mudavadi. Omari’s analysis seemed to have been informed by state operatives. These were his words:
“In my view, 2022, demands that he comes out with a clear vision, it demands that he comes out with a clear stand. He should be a man who moves with a clear agenda. Otherwise, it might mark the end of his political career.
“The book that he has just launched is full of lamentations. This country will never elect anybody who is lamenting. This country will elect people who throw themselves into the mud and campaign aggressively for the top job.
“Mudavadi is a politician who thinks power should be handed to him on a silver platter. This cannot happen in Kenya anymore.
“The way I look at him, he is a man who is waiting for a coronation or an installation. If he relies on this, he will fail badly. If he does not change his ways, he might not be a key player in 2022.” Omari wrote.
17 days later, Lugari MP Ayub Savula, a bosom friend of Musalia Mudavadi hinted at a possible alliance between Musalia Mudavadi and President Uhuru Kenyatta ahead of 2022.
He issued a press statement in Kakamega saying Mr Mudavadi shoulf work closely with President Uhuru with an aim of forming a formidable alliance that would hand him the presidency.
Adding, “When President Kenyatta asked his Mt. Kenya backyard to stop following other politicians seeking to succeed him and wait for a surprise candidate he was referring to Mudavadi,”
He went on to reveal that the two have been meeting frequently.
Same month, former Vice President Kalonzo Musyoka in an interview on Citizen TV talked extensively on deep state which he literally put as the structures of government which is headed by the President.
Deep state in other words are secret forces, in most instances faceless individuals or lobby groups that rule a country and world over from behind the scenes. They are the ones who always decide who become the President in every country. Others call them system.
In that interview, Kalonzo went on to say that even the words of Donald Trump are purely from the deep state. Majority who belong to this category can hardly be picked out in the streets of Nairobi or wherever if you meet them but holds the most guarded secrets of who is who in Kenya. And for you to become anything, they must give you a go ahead.
In short, Kalonzo said that if the deep state does not want you to rule, you will not rule no matter how popular you are. As in, the people alone are not enough to make you President.
Is deep state supporting Mudavadi?
Early this month, The Star newspaper published yet another story insinuating that President Uhuru Kenyatta is planning to relinquish power to the son of Mudamba: “Is Uhuru planning to back Mudavadi for President in 2022?” The Star newspaper wrote.
Fast forward, Saturday January 19, 2019 at a BBI function at Bukhungu stadium, Kakameg, it became clear that there are forces working behind the scenes to see Musalia Mudavadi unite the region to rally behind him fully.
The words of COTU Secretary General Francis Atwoli at the Bukhungu function depicted him as a person who is working for Musalia Mudavadi. Take for example how he kept on reminding him how power is in the BBI and that he should consider doing away with ANC and Ford Kenya and form a more formidable and unifying party that has all Luhya in it. In short, Atwoli is working for Mudavadi.
What next for Raila?
Well, it may not be clear what his widely quoted statement meant but in my view, this statement was not just any other.
“What I am doing with Uhuru, we are doing it for the posterity of this country. It is not for Raila Odinga. Raila Odinga does not have to be the president of Kenya, but Kenya must have a good President.” he said.
So what did he mean by saying, “Raila Odinga does not have to be the president of Kenya, but Kenya must have a good President”? food for thought.
As if that was not enough, he went on to quote the words of Dr Martin L King Jr. These were the same he used in early 2017 during the celebration of ODM at 10 at Laico hotel, Nairobi.
“I have been to the mountain top, and I have looked over. And I have seen the promised land. I may not get there with you, but we as a people will get to the promised land”.
The context of the word “I may not get there with you” may mean so many things. But simply put, Raila Odinga is not dying to be President of the Republic of Kenya but he wants Kenya to have a good President. Whether that person will be him, Musalia Mudavadi, so be it.