Covid-19 Kenya: Too Risky To Re-open

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By Wagunya Muriu

Since Kenya confirmed our first case of #Covid19, President Uhuru Kenyatta has been very consistent on his approach to this war;Save Lives First, Then Recover the Economy Later.

If we critically analyse the measures that the Government of President Uhuru Kenyatta has put in place, one thing clearly stands out; That his primary objective number is to protect and preserve the lives of 47 million Kenyans from the Corona virus then secure them a livelihood.

Looking at the statistics from the ministry of health for the past few weeks, it very clear that the number of confirmed cases have been steadily increasing and we are now having over a hundred victims in the daily updates by MOH. The problem is not even the growth the rate.

As an applied statistian, I feel very scared when I hear people shouting out to the President to reopen the country. You see, looking at how his disease is spread and how Kenyans have been behaving, we could be having thousands of people out there who are already infected and undetected and are continuing to spread it. Then here we are, asking the President to reopen so that more people can get infected.

Another factor for consideration would be the time and season. You see folks, when Europe was recording deaths in 1000s, they were in their winter. Research has shown that the virus spread faster and also weaken the body in cold weather. Here in Kenya, ‘winter’ usually comes around June, July and August. Under normal circumstances, it’s during this season that we loose many senior citizens.

Now looking at the #Covid19 situation in the country, we may have to endure these extraordinary times for at least 3 more months in order to ensure that our country is safe for re-opening. why am I saying 3 months?

It has taken us 3 months to get where we are. A situation where the rate of new infection is growing exponentially and hundreds are being skip traced. The situation is do bad that the Government is currently preparing for community infection in our villages!

Assuming, we are at the climax, and that it will take us 3 months to come back to normal, what we can ask our President for now is to start preparing us for the re-opening but NOT to reopen.

It will also be wise for us to ask ourselves how we can continue living our lives normally in the case where the virus (s) are here to stay and that this is The New World Order.

Before we Imagine of re-opening our country, let us first study how nations like India, Brazil and Italy who went for a sudden open up. What were consequence? Are we ready to bear such consequences?

In my view, we should not entertain the conversation on re-opening until the statistics give us some sufficient evidence that indeed we have contained the spread of the virus to a level where incase of re-opening, we would Neve have the number of new infections going up in such a way that they end up creating more crisis in our medical facilities.

(The writer is a political analyst.)

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