Political observers suggests the bitter fallout with former deputy Rigathi Gachagua, has forced President William Ruto to shift focus beyond the vote-rich Mt. Kenya region as he builds his 2027 re-election campaign.
President Ruto who recently seems restless over possibility of losing 2027 elections, has been courting other regions outside Mt Kenya and his traditional Rift Valley backyard such as Western, Nyanza, the Coast, North Eastern, signaling a shift in his strategy for securing a second term.
After leading a well oiled populist campaign, centered on the “hustler” narrative In the 2022 General Election, he garnerd 7,176,141 votes (50.49%), beating his close rival, Azimio la Umoja coalition leader Raila Odinga.
His success was largely attributed to strong support from Mt. Kenya and key inroads into opposition territories.
However, changing political tactics and Gachagua’s sidelining within the Kenya Kwanza administration may have complicated President Ruto’s chances of getting second term, forcing him to seek new allies and strategies.
Political analyst Javas Bigambo suggests that Ruto is reconfiguring his re-election strategy following tensions with Mt. Kenya, a region that overwhelmingly backed him in 2022.
“The President is redrawing his re-election map, which is quite different from the strategy that brought him to power in 2022, largely due to his evolving relationship with Mt. Kenya,” Bigambo told People Daily Weekend.
As part of this new approach, Bigambo notes that Ruto is now focused on winning over former Prime Minister Raila Odinga’s traditional strongholds and previously marginalized areas like North Eastern.
According to Bigambo, the President has purposefully appointed individuals from the NEP region to his government in order to gain their support.
Bigambo believes the President’s other objective is to ensure that the so-called broad-based administration, which includes his allies and Raila’s, succeeds.
“He already knows that Raila Odinga will play a key role in 2027 General Election and therefore, he is keen to ensure that the former PM is elected to the African Union Commission chairmanship as well as ensure that the Broad-based government succeeds,” Bigambo said.
The president is focused on making inroads into opposition strongholds, including Raila Odinga’s Nyanza region, while also strengthening his grip on Western Kenya as a backup plan.
This strategy aims to safeguard his re-election bid in case the politically restless Mt. Kenya region, with its 5.8 million registered voters across five counties, shifts allegiance before 2027.
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