President William Ruto’s administration is allegedly working to ensure that opposition leader Raila Odinga secures another term in the African Union.
Diplomatic Affairs analyst Ahmed Hashi has claimed that this move is part of a strategy to keep Odinga engaged internationally, preventing him from fully focusing on local politics ahead of the 2027 elections.
This alleged plan is seen as a way to weaken Odinga’s influence in Kenya, making it easier for Ruto to secure re-election. The government has not officially confirmed these claims, but speculation continues to grow about its involvement in the AU elections.
The AU Chairperson position is highly competitive, and Odinga is expected to face tough competition. Mohamoud Youssouf of Djibouti and Richard Randriamandrato of Madagascar are also in the race. The winner will replace Moussa Faki of Chad, who has served two terms since 2017.
The election will take place during the AU Executive Council meeting in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, from February 12 to 13, 2025. The process will involve the heads of state from the 55 AU member countries voting to determine the winner.
The issue has sparked reactions from various political figures and analysts in Kenya. Robert Alai has openly criticized Royal Media Services, accusing the broadcaster of giving a platform to individuals who oppose Odinga.
He has questioned why one media company controls so many frequencies and has called for the Communications Authority of Kenya (CA) to investigate its operations.
Alai claims that the media house is biased and actively promotes negative narratives against Odinga, fueling divisions within the country. His concerns reflect a broader debate about media influence and political bias in Kenya.
The alleged involvement of the Kenyan government in Odinga’s AU bid raises several questions. If Ruto’s administration is indeed backing him, it could be a strategic move to shift his focus away from domestic politics.
Odinga has been a key figure in Kenya’s opposition for decades, leading protests and challenging government policies. Keeping him engaged in the AU would reduce his direct influence on local politics, allowing Ruto to consolidate power without opposition.
However, Odinga’s chances of winning the AU seat are uncertain. His competitors, Youssouf and Randriamandrato, also have strong credentials, and the final decision will be influenced by diplomatic alliances across Africa.
Some analysts argue that if Odinga fails to secure the position, he could return to Kenyan politics with even more energy, potentially posing a bigger challenge to Ruto in 2027.
Others believe that even if he wins, he will still find ways to influence Kenyan politics from the AU.The coming weeks will be critical as the AU election process unfolds.
The outcome will have implications for both Kenyan politics and Africa’s leadership structure. If Odinga secures the position, it could reshape the opposition in Kenya. If he loses, it may signal a new phase in his political career, either as a stronger opposition leader or as someone looking for a different role in the country’s governance.
Regardless of the result, the 2027 elections remain a major focus, with all sides preparing their strategies.
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